Skip to main navigation menu Skip to main content Skip to site footer

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Business Cycle in the Visegrad Group



Objective: The aim of the research was to analyse morphological changes in the Visegrad Group business cycles before and after the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, and to provide comparison of their overall economic performance in terms of the real GDP growth, unemployment rate changes and price stability.
Research Design & Methods: Visegrad Group’s business cycles were determined by employing Hodrick and Prescott filter to extract cyclical fluctuations, while Bry and Boschan algorithm was applied to identify the turning points of the cycles. Morphological features of business cycles were examined. The analysis was supplemented by examining unemployment rate and price stability.
Findings: The financial crisis resulted in the drop of the GDP growth and a periodical increase in unemployment. Nevertheless, in the 20 analysed years the unemployment rate tends to attain lower values, while prices become more stable. The last two economic cycles resulted in post-crisis rebound of the GDP growth. At the same time, the performance of the countries (except for outperforming Poland) becomes more and more correlated.
Implications & Recommendations: The Visegrad Group was affected by the crisis and it is plausible that any future disturbances in the world economy might affect it again. Further research aiming at deeper understanding of how a particular country was affected could help mitigate a negative impact of future crises.
Contribution & Value Added: The article helps to understand how the crisis affected the V4 economies in terms of the real GDP growth, unemployment rate and price stability. It indicates how the economic aggregates behaved before and after the crash.


economic cycle, business cycle, Visegrad Group, financial crisis



  1. Barczyk, R. (2006). Nowe oblicza cyklu koniunkturalnego. Warszawa: PWE.
  2. Barczyk, R., & Kowalczyk, Z. (1993). Metody badania koniunktury gospodarczej. Warszawa-Poznań: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
  3. Baxter, M., & King, R.G. (1999). Measuring business cycles: approximate band-pass filters for economic time series. Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4), 575-593.
  4. Beck, K., & Janus, J. (2014). Synchronization of Economic Shocks in the Visegrad Group: An Empiri-cal Assessment. Studia UBB Negotia, 5, 35-56.
  5. Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2005). Political budget cycles in new versus established democra-cies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271-1295. 10.3386/w10539
  6. Bry, G., & Boschan, C. (1971). Cyclical analysis of economic time series: selected procedures and computer programs (NBER Technical Working Paper, 20).
  7. Burns, A.F., & Mitchell, W.C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. New York: NBER Books.
  8. Christiano, L.J., & Fitzgerald, T.J. (2003). The Band Pass Filter. International Economic Review, 44(2), 435-465.
  9. Carroll, J.M. (2011). Slovakia and the Euro: How Slovakia has Out-paced its Visegrád Neighbors on the Path to Economic and Monetary Union (Doctoral dissertation, The University of North Car-olina at Chapel Hill).
  10. Dąbrowski, M.A., & Wróblewska, J. (2016). Exchange rate as a shock absorber in Poland and Slo-vakia: Evidence from Bayesian SVAR models with common serial correlation. Economic Mod-elling, 58, 249-262.
  11. Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A.J. (2008). A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960. New York: Princeton University Press.
  12. Goodwin, R.M. (1951). The nonlinear accelerator and the persistence of business cy-cles. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1-17.
  13. Hanus, L., & Vacha, L. (2015). Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the Europe-an Union (No. 19/2015). IES Working Paper.
  14. Hodrick, R.J., & Prescott, E.C. (1997). Postwar US business cycles: an empirical investiga-tion. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(1), 1-16.
  15. Hurd, D., & Rohwedder, S. (2010). Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households (Working Paper No. 16407). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  16. Jakimowicz, A. (2003). Od Keynesa do teorii chaosu: ewolucja teorii wahań koniunkturalnych. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
  17. Kijek, A. (2017). Spectral Analysis Of Business Cycles In The Visegrad Group Countries. Compara-tive Economic Research, 20(2), 53-73.
  18. Konopczak, K., & Marczewski, K. (2011). Why so different from other CEECs – Poland’s cyclical divergence from the euro area during the recent financial crisis. Bank i Kredyt, 42(2), 7-30.
  19. Lenart, Ł., Mazur, B., & Pipień, M. (2016). Statistical Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Poland Before and After the Crisis. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 11(4), 769-783.
  20. Lucas Jr, R.E. (1975). An equilibrium model of the business cycle. Journal of Political Econo-my, 83(6), 1113-1144.
  21. Marczak, K., & Piech K. (2009). Cykle koniunkturalne: ujęcie historyczne i przegląd głównych teorii. In Koniunktura gospodarcza. Od bańki internetowej do kryzysu subprime. Warszawa: C.H. Beck.
  22. Minsky, H. (1982). Can ‘it’ happen again? Essays on instability and finance. New York: M.E. Sharpe.
  23. Mundell, R.A. (1961). A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 657-665.
  24. Pacześ, P. (2015). Decyzje polityczne a cykl koniunkturalny w państwach inicjatywy wyszehradzkiej, Podejście krótkookresowe i strategiczne w polityce gospodarczej, Prace i materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH, Warszawa, 75-93.
  25. Pangsy-Kania, S. (2004). Przegląd teoretycznych aspektów cyklu koniunkturalnego. Ekonomia, 12, Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego, 109-125.
  26. Pawęta, E. (2013). The Determinants of Born Global Companies Emergence in Central
  27. European Countries. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 1(2), 41-50.
  28. Rigobon, R. (2001). Contagion: How to Measure It?. (Working Paper No. 8118). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  29. Skrzypczyńska, M. (2013). Cykl koniunkturalny w Polsce – analiza sektorowa. Bank i Kredyt, 44(2), 175-205.
  30. Smithies, A. (1966). Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Readings in Business Cycle. London: George Allen London.
  31. Tvrdon, M. (2011). Impacts of the global economic crisis on the European labor market perfor-mance: the case of Visegrad Group countries. Recent Advances in Business Administration, 5th WSEAS International Conference on Business Administration, Mexico, 38-44.


Download data is not yet available.