An empirical investigation into regional housing market synchronisation in Poland

Abstract

Objective: The article aims to investigate the synchronisation of metropolitan house prices from 2000 to 2020 based on novel empirical data. We applied several econometric procedures to address the cyclicity of housing markets.

Research Design & Methods: Using a unique dataset of over four million offers, we investigated the synchronisation of 18 regional housing markets in Poland from 2000 to 2020. The study used spectral analysis.

Findings: The study proved the strong synchronisation of housing cycles in Polish regional housing markets. Moreover, when the cycle amplitude was considered, the econometric analysis showed regional disparities in the cyclical behaviour of housing prices. According to the research, Lublin and Opole had the lowest housing cycle magnitude, and Gdańsk, Katowice, and Łódź had the largest magnitude.

Implications & Recommendations: The information about housing cycles has important policy implications. Housing wealth effects generated by cyclical house prices may be more persistent than financial wealth effects. Consequently, they may substantially affect consumption dynamics. Therefore, precisely identifying market cycles and differences in cycle synchronisation is vital when constructing an effective, selective, and well-timed monetary policy.

Contribution & Value Added: The research narrows the knowledge gap on the synchronisation of housing markets in an emerging economic environment. With their distinct institutional structures, Eastern European countries have little knowledge of this issue.

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