Skip to main navigation menu Skip to main content Skip to site footer

Do sukuk ratings non-contingently affect stock returns? Evidence from Indonesia and Malaysia

Abstract

Objective: The objective of the article is to investigate two issues. First, whether the Islamic bond (sukuk) ratings are the key determinant in affecting stock returns and, second, whether firm-characteristic variables moderate the sukuk ratings effect on stock returns.

Research Design & Methods: This study applied the panel estimated generalized least squares (EGLS) regression for two samples (from Indonesia and Malaysia) spanning two years, 2015-2016, for all variables, except for the intrinsic-value variable which spanned eight years, 2009-2016.

Findings: The results show that the direct and positive effect of sukuk ratings on stock returns are significantly present in Malaysia but not in Indonesia, while the positive and significant moderating effects of firm-characteristic variables – especially leverage and intrinsic value of the firm – are more pronounced in the positive sukuk rating-stock return relationship in Indonesia than in Malaysia.

Implications & Recommendations: The types of firm-characteristic variables involved in determining the effect of sukuk ratings on stock returns depend on the country’s characteristics. As a result, adopting sukuk ratings to determine stock returns is not constant but, instead, it is contingent – to an extent – on other variables: firm-characteristic variables. These results suggest that still many factors should be explored so as to reach a better judgment on the quality of credit, including sukuk.

Contribution & Value Added: While most previous studies employed the event-study method and did not specifically consider firm-characteristic effects on analysing the relationship between sukuk ratings and stock returns, this study sought to reveal whether sukuk ratings are the key determinant in affecting prices (or stock returns), and the extent to which firm-characteristic variables moderate the relationship between sukuk ratings and stock returns.

Keywords

sukuk ratings, credit ratings, stock returns, firm characteristics

(PDF) Save

Author Biography

Ibnu Qizam

PhD in Accounting from Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, and is Associate Professor in Accounting at the Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Indonesia. His research interests include market-based accounting, corporate finance, Islamic finance, and corporate governance.

Correspondence to: Dr. Ibnu Qizam, Faculty of Economics and Business, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Jl. Ibnu Sina IV, Ciputat, Tangerang Selatan, Banten, Indonesia, 15412; e-mail: qzami68@gmail.com


References

  1. Ab Hamid, N.H., Zakaria, N.B., & Ab Aziz, N.H. (2014). Firms’ performance and risk with the presence of sukuk rating as default risk, Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 145, 181 – 188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.06.025
  2. Abd Rahim, S., & Ahmad, N. (2016). Investigating FTSE KLCI using CAAR estimations following sukuk an-nouncement in Malaysia: Based on sukuk ratings. Journal of Investment and Management, 5(6), 158-165. https://doi.org/ 10.11648/j.jim.20160506.19
  3. Aguinis, H., Edwards, J.R., & Bradley, K.J. (2016). Improving our understanding of moderation and mediation in strategic management research. Organizational Research Methods, 20(4), 665-685. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428115627498
  4. Ahmad, N., Daud, S.N., & Kefeli, Z. (2012). Economic forces and the sukuk market. Procedia: Social and Behav-ioral Sciences, 65, 127-133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.11.101
  5. Ahmed, H., & Elsayed, A. (2019). Are Islamic and conventional capital markets decoupled? Evidence from stock and bonds/sukuk markets in Malaysia. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 74, 56-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.04.005
  6. Alam, N., Bhatti, M., & Wong, J.T.F. (2018). Assessing sukuk defaults using value-at-risk techniques. Manage-rial Finance, 44(6), 665-687. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-05-2018-0218
  7. Alam, N., Hassan, M.K., & Haque, M.A. (2013). Are Islamic bonds different from conventional bonds? Inter-national evidence from capital market tests. Borsa Istanbul Review, 13(3), 22-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2013.10.006
  8. Alaoui, A., Dewandaru, G., Rosly, S., & Masih, M. (2015). Linkages and co-movement between international stock market returns: Case of Dow Jones Islamic Dubai financial market index. Journal of International Fi-nancial Markets, Institutions and Money, 36, 53-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.12.004
  9. Aloui, C., Hammoudeh, S., & Hamida, H. (2015a). Co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the GCC markets: A time-frequency analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 34, 69-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.11.003
  10. Aloui, C., Hammoudeh, S., & Hamida, H. (2015b). Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The North Amer-ican Journal of Economics and Finance, 31, 311-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2014.12.002
  11. Aloui, C., Hammoudeh, S., & Hamida, H. (2015c). Price discovery and regime shift behavior in the relation-ship between sharia stocks and sukuk: A two-state markov switching analysis. Pacific-Basin Finance Jour-nal, 34, 121-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2014.12.002
  12. Akhtar, S., Akhtar, F., Jahromi, M., & John, K. (2017). Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conven-tional stocks and bonds. Journal of International Money and Finance, 79, 218-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.003
  13. Ariff, M., & Safari, M. (2015). Valuation of Islamic debt instruments, the Sukuk: Lessons for market develop-ment. In H.A. El-Karanshawy et al. (Eds.). Islamic banking and finance – Essays on corporate finance, effi-ciency, and product development (pp. 1-17). Doha, Qatar: Bloomsbury Qatar Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.wijdantariq.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Islamic-Finance-Book_Volume_3.pdf#page=18 on September 30, 2020.
  14. Arundina, T., Omar, M.A., & Kartiwi, M. (2015). The predictive accuracy of sukuk ratings: Multinomial logistic and neural network inferences. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 34, 273-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.03.002
  15. Asutay, M., & Hakim, A. (2018). Exploring international economic integration through sukuk market connec-tivity: A network perspective. Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 77-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.10.003
  16. Ayturk, Y., Asutay, M., & Aksak, E. (2017). What explains corporate sukuk primary market spreads?. Research in International Business and Finance, 40, 141-149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.01.002
  17. Azmat, S., Skully, M., & Brown, K. (2014). Issuer's choice of Islamic bond type. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 28, 122-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.08.008
  18. Baghai, R.P., Servaes, H., & Tamayo, A. (2014). Have rating agencies become more conservative? Implications for capital structure and debt pricing. Journal of Finance, 69(5), 1961-2005. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12153
  19. Baron, D.P., Harjoto, M.A., & Jo, H. (2011). The economics and politics of corporate social performance. Business and Politics, 13(02), 1-46. https://doi.org/10.2202/1469-3569.1374
  20. Bedendo, M., Cathcart, L., & El-Jahel, L. (2018). Reputational shocks and the information content of credit ratings. Journal of Financial Stability, 34, 44-60. https://doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2017.12.003
  21. Bhatti, M.I. (2007). Sukuk and the bonding of Islamic finance. Monash Business Review, 3(1), 17-18. https://doi.org/10.2104/mbr07004
  22. Blume, M.E., Lim, F., & Mackinlay, A.C. (1998). The declining quality of US corporate debt: Myth or reality?. The Journal of Finance, 53(4), 1389-1413. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/117406 on Sep-tember 30, 2020.
  23. Dang, C., (Frank) Li, Z., & Yang, C. (2018). Measuring firm size in empirical corporate finance. Journal of Bank-ing & Finance, 86, 159-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.09.006
  24. Elhaj, M.A.A., Muhamed, N.A., & Ramli, N.M. (2015). The influence of corporate governance, financial ratios, and sukuk structure on sukuk rating. Procedia Economics and Finance, 31, 62-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)01132-6
  25. Fauzi, F., Foo, D., & Basyith, A. (2017). Islamic bond announcement: Is there any effect on returns?. Global Business Review, 18, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150916668602
  26. Fooladi, M., Shukor, Z.A., Saleh, N.M., & Jaffar, R. (2014). The effect of corporate governance and divergence between cash flow and control rights on firm performance. International Journal of Disclosure and Gov-ernance, 11(4), 326-340. https://doi.org/10.1057/jdg.2013.24
  27. Godlewski, C., Turk-Ariss, R., & Weill, L. (2013). Sukuk vs. conventional bonds: A stock market perspective. Journal of Comparative Economics, 41, 745-761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2013.02.006
  28. Godlewski, C.J., Turk-Ariss, R., & Weill, L. (2010). Are sukuk really special? Evidence from the Malaysian Stock Exchange. BOFIT Discussion Papers, 6/2011, Helsinki: Bank of Finland. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/1209825/Are_Sukuk_Really_Special_Evidence_from_the_Malaysian_Stock_Exchange on September 30, 2020.
  29. Grier, P., & Katz, S. (1976). The differential effects of bond rating changes among industrial and public utility bonds by maturity, The Journal of Business, 49(2), 226-39. https://doi.org/10.1086/295833
  30. Haj-Salem, I., Damak Ayadi, S., & Hussainey, K. (2020). The joint effect of corporate risk disclosure and cor-porate governance on firm value. International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, 17, 123-140. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41310-020-00079-w
  31. Hand, J.R.M., Holthausen, R.W., & Leftwich, R.W. (1992). The effect of bond rating agency announcements on bond and stock prices. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 733-52. https://doi.org/10.2307/2329121
  32. Hassan, M., Aliyu, S., Paltrinieri, A., & Khan, A. (2019). A review of Islamic investment literature. Economic Papers, 38(4), 345-380. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12230
  33. Hassan, M.K., Paltrinieri, A., Dreassi, A., Miani, S., & Sclip, A. (2018). The determinants of co-movement dy-namics between sukuk and conventional bonds. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 68, 73-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.09.003
  34. International Islamic Financial Market (IIFM). (2019). Sukuk Report: Comprehensive Study of the Global Sukuk Market, 8th Edition (July). Retrieved from https://www.iifm.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/IIFM-Sukuk-Report-8th-Edition_4.pdf on June 25, 2020.
  35. Khartabiel, G., Abu-Alkheil, A., Tunku Ahmad, T.S., & Khan, W. (2020). Shari’ah-compliant Sukuk versus con-ventional bond announcements: Is there a wealth effect?. Review of Quantitative Finance, & Accounting 54, 1059-1073. https://doi: 10.1007/s11156-019-00799-3
  36. Klein, P.-O., Turk, R., & Weill, L. (2017). Religiosity vs. well-being effects on investor behavior. Journal of Eco-nomic Behavior & Organization, 138, 50-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.04.009
  37. Kordvani, A. (2009). A legal analysis of the Islamic bonds in Iran. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 2(4), 323-337. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538390911006377
  38. Lin, J., & Sung, J. (2014). Assessing the Graham's formula for stock selection: Too good to be true?. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 2(1-5). https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2014.23001
  39. Mohamed, M., Yahya, N.C., & Ishak, N.A. (2017). Market reactions towards the announcement of sukuk issu-ance: Evidence from Malaysian Market. Jurnal Pengurusan 49, 89-102. https://doi.org/10.17576/pengurusan-2017-49-08
  40. Moody’s Investors Service. (1995). Moody’s Credit Ratings and Research.
  41. Murcia, F.C.d.S, Murcia, F.D.R., Rover, S., & Borba, J.A. (2014). The determinants of credit rating: Brazilian evidence. Brazilian Administration Review, 11(2), 188-209. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1807-76922014000200005
  42. Naifar, N., & Hammoudeh, S. (2016). Do global financial distress and uncertainties impact GCC and global sukuk return dynamics?. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 39, 57-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.05.016
  43. Naifar, N., Hammoudeh, S., & Al dohaimanae, M. (2016). Dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds) and stock market conditions: An empirical analysis with Archimedean copulas. Journal of Interna-tional Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 44, 148-165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2016.05.003
  44. Nagano, M. (2017). Sukuk issuance and information asymmetry: Why do firms issue sukuk?. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 42, 142-157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.12.005
  45. Ng, A., & Ariff, M. (2019). Does credit rating revision affect the price of a special class of common stock?. Borsa Istanbul Review. 19-S1, S44-S55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2019.02.004
  46. Paltrinieri, A., Hassan, M.K., Bahoo, S., & Khan, A. (2019). A bibliometric review of sukuk literature. Interna-tional Review of Economics & Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2019.04.004
  47. Qizam, I., & Fong, M. (2019). Developing financial disclosure quality in sukuk and bond market: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(3), 228-248, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2019.05.002
  48. Rohim, M., & Shereeza, M.S. (2013). Analysis on the thoughts of Imam Abu Hanifah and Imam Syafi’i on the Ijtihad method for sukuk instrument. Jurnal Teknologi, 62(1), 17-24. https://doi.org/10.11113/jt.v62.1205
  49. Said, A., & Grassa, R. (2013). The determinants of sukuk market development: Does macroeconomic factors influence the construction of certain structure of Sukuk?. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 3(5), 251-267. Retrieved from https://www.scienpress.com/journal_focus.asp?main_id=56&Sub_id=IV&Issue=844 on July 10, 2020.
  50. Sclip, A., Dreassi, A., Miani, S., & Paltrinieri, A. (2016). Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk. Review of Financial Economics, 31, 34-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2016.06.005
  51. Shafron, E. (2019). Investor tastes: Implications for pricing in the public debt market. Journal of Corporate Finance, 55, 6-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2018.08.006
  52. Sharma, S., Durand, R.M., & Gur-Arie, O. (1981). Identification and analysis of moderator variables. Journal of Marketing Research, 18(3), 291. https://doi.org/10.2307/3150970
  53. Siagian, F., Siregar, S.V., & Rahadian, Y. (2013). Corporate governance, reporting quality, and firm value: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, 3(1), 4-20. https://doi.org/10.1108/20440831311287673
  54. Smaoui, H., & Khawaja, M. (2017). The determinants of sukuk market development. Emerging Markets Fi-nance and Trade, 53(7), 1501-1518. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1224175
  55. Smaoui, H., Mimouni, K., & Temimi, A. (2019). The impact of sukuk on the insolvency risk of conventional and Islamic banks. Applied Economics, 52(8), 806-824. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1646406
  56. Smaoui, H., & Nechi, S. (2017). Does sukuk market development spur economic growth?. Research in Interna-tional Business and Finance, 41(October), 136-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.018
  57. Usmani, T. (2008). Sukuk and their contemporary applications. Retrieved from http://Sukuk.net/library/education/MuftiTaqiSukukpaper.pdf. on June 23, 2020.
  58. The World Bank. (2020). Indicators: GDP per Capita. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ on June 23, 2020.Wu, A.D., & Zumbo, B.D. (2007). Understanding and using mediators and moderators. Social Indicators Research, 87(3), 367-392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-007-9143-1
  59. Zulkhibri, M. (2015). A synthesis of theoretical and empirical research on sukuk. Borsa Istanbul Review, 15(4), 237-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2015.10.001

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Similar Articles

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.