Student Enrolment and Output Effects in Poland: 2SLS and VAR Estimates
Abstract
Objective: The purpose of this article is to investigate the direct effects of student enrolment on industrial production and GDP while controlling other growth determinants such as physical capital investments and employment.
Research Design & Methods: Educational effects on output, i.e. industrial production and gross domestic product (GDP), are estimated by means of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) model, vector error-correction autoregression (VAR/VEC) model, and with the application of annual data sample for the period of 1992-2017.
Findings: The study proves that there is a significant correlation between the number of students and output in Poland, especially with respect to the industrial sector. Regardless of estimators used, higher output is related to a decline in student enrolment in a long period of time. Investments in physical capital are an important factor responsible for both higher output and stronger student enrolment. Employment appears to influence neither GDP growth nor student enrolment. However, employment negatively impacts changes in industrial production.
Implications & Recommendations: In the presence of an inverse correlation between economic growth and the number of students, the author argues in favour of discreet government policies aimed at boosting student enrolment in alignment with the pattern of investment activities.
Contribution & Value Added: The article contributes to a better understanding of two-way causation between student enrolment and economic growth in Poland, with clear guidelines for educational policies aimed at a better match with demand for high-skilled labour in industry.
Keywords
higher education, economic growth, 2SLS, VAR, Poland
References
- Abankina, I., & Filatova, L. (2015). Sustaining Student Enrolment: Impact of Demand Trends for Higher Education in Russia. Journal of US-China Public Administration, 12(5), 345-359. https://doi.org/10.17265/1548-6591/2015.05.002 Asteriou, D., & Agiomirgianakis, G. (2001). Human capital and economic growth: Time series evidence from Greece. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(5), 481-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/S01618938(01)00054-0 Barcenilla-Visús, A., & López-Pueyo, C. (2018). Inside Europe: human capital and economic growth revisited. Empirica, 45(4), 821-847. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-017-9394-2 Barro, R.J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. McGraw-Hill, New York. Benhabib, J., & Spiegel, M. (1994). The role of human capital in economic development: Evidence from aggregate cross-country data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(2), 143-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90047-7 Bils, M., & Klenow, P. (2000). Does schooling cause growth? American Economic Review, 90(5), 11601183. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.5.1160 Benos, N., & Zotou, S. (2014). Education and Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis. World Development, 64(C), 669-689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.06.034
- Bhorat, H., Cassim, A., & Tseng, D. (2016). Higher education, employment and economic growth: Exploring the interactions. Development Southern Africa, 33(3), 312-327. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/0376835X.2016.1161501 Boldin, R., Morote, E.S., McMullen, M. (1996). Higher Education and Economic Growth in Latin American Emerging Markets. Retrieved from lasa.international.pitt.edu/Lasa2000/BoldinetalPDF.pdf on September 2, 2019. Bulman, D., Eden, M., & Nguen, H. (2017). Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: Is there a middle-income trap?. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 22(1), 5-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2016.1261448 Cuaresma, J.C., Doppelhofer, G., Huber, F., & Pitibauer, P. (2018). Human capital accumulation and long-term income growth projections for European regions. Journal of Regional Studies, 58(1), 81-99. https:// doi.org/10.1111/jors.12339 Delgado, M., Henderson, D.J., & Parmeter, C. (2014). Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 76(3), 334-359. https://doi: 10.1111/obes.12025 De Meulemeester, J.-L., & Rochat, D. (1995). A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development. Economics of Education Review, 14(4), 351-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(95)00015-C Dragoescu, R.M. (2015). Education as a determinant of the economic growth. The case of Romania. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 197, 404-412. Eckstein, Z., Sarid, A., & Tamir, Y. (2017). Cross Countries Aggregate Education Impact on GDP percapita: Growth or Levels?. The University of Haifa, Izrael. EViews 10 (2017). EViews 10 User’s Guide II. Irvine, CA: IHS Global Inc. Retrieved from https://www3.nd.edu/~nmark/FinancialEconometrics/EViews10_Manuals/ EViews%2010%20Users%20Guide%20II.pdf on August 29, 2019. Fotea, A.C., & Guțu, C. (2016). Historical and Theoretical Framework of the Relation between Higher Education Institutions and the Process of Regional Economic Development. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 4(1), 23-42. https://doi.org/10.15678/ EBER.2016.040103 Gradzewicz, M., Growiec, J., Kolasa, M., Postek, L., & Strzelecki, P. (2018). Poland’s uninterrupted growth performance: new growth accounting evidence. Post-Communist Economies, 30(2), 238-272. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2017.1398519 Hanushek, E.A., & Woessmann, L. (2008). The role of cognitive skills in economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(3), 607-668. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.3.607 Hermannsson, K., Lisenkova, K., Lecca, P., McGregor, P., & Kim, S.J. (2017). The external benefits of higher education. Regional Studies, 51(7), 1077-1088. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404. 2016.1172062 Islam, N. (1995). Growth empirics: a panel data approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 1127-1170. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/2946651 on August 25, 2019. Krueger A., & Lindahl, M. (2001). Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?. Journal of Economic Literature, XXXIX(4), 1101-1136. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.39.4.1101 Kot, S., & Slusarczyk, B. (2014). Problems in the development of higher education in Poland. World Transactions on Engineering and Technology Education, 12(4), 675-680. Lenkei, B., Mustafa, G., & Vecchi, M. (2018). Growth in emerging economies: Is there a role for education?. Economic Modelling, 73, 240-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.03.020 Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
- Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D., & Weil, D.N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477 Madsen, J., & Martin, F. (2017). British economic growth since 1270: the role of education. Journal of Economic Growth, 22, 229-272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-017-9145-z Marconi, G. (2018). Education as a Long-Term Investment: The Decisive Role of Age in the EducationGrowth Relationship. Kyklos, 71(1), 132-161. Marklund, G., Naczinsky, C., Ziarko, W., Winckler, G., Puukka, J., File, J., Holm-Nielsen, L.B., & Melin, G. (2017). Poland’s Higher Education and Science System: Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2777/193011 Nelson, R.R., & Phelps, E.S. (1966). Investment in humans, technological diffusion, and economic growth. American Economic Review, 56(1), 69-75. Nowak. H. (2016). The Role of the Polish Higher Education System in the Development of Entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review 4(1), 43-59. https://doi.org/ 10.15678/EBER.2016.040104 Oancea, B., Pospíšil, R., & Drăgoescu, R.M. (2017). Higher Education and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between the Czech Republic and Romania. Prague Economic Papers, 26(4), 467-486. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.622 Obradović, S., & Lojanica, N. (2016). Higher Education and Economic Growth: Swedish Evidence From Multivariate Framework. Facta Universitatis, Series: Economics and Organization, 13(2), 177185. Otsuka, K., Higuchi, Y., & Sonobe, T. (2017). Middle-income traps in East Asia: An inquiry into causes for slowdown in income growth. China Economic Review, 46, 3-16. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.02.002 Pegkas, P., & Tsamadias, C. (2014). Does Higher Education Affect Economic Growth?. The Case of Greece. International Economic Journal, 28(3), 425-444. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 10168737. 2014.894551 Pereira, J., & Aubyn, M. (2009). What level of education matters most for growth? Evidence from Portugal. Economics of Education Review, 28(1), 67-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.econedurev.2007.12.001 Petrakis, P.E., & Stamatakis, D. (2002). Growth and educational levels: a comparative analysis. Economics of Education Review, 21(5), 513-521. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-7757(01)00050-4 Podrecca, E., & Carmeci, G. (2002). Does Education Cause Economic Growth?. University of Triest, Italy. Pritchett, L. (2001). Where has all the Education gone?. World Bank Economic Review, 15(3), 367391. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/15.3.367 Romer, P.M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725. Schofer, E., & Meyer, J. (2005). The Worldwide Expansion of Higher Education in the Twentieth Century. American Sociological Review, 70(6), 898-920. Simionescu, M., Lazányi, K., Sopková G., Dobeš, K., & Balcerzak, A. (2017). Determinants of Economic Growth in V4 Countries and Romania. Journal of Competitiveness, 9(1), 103-116. https://doi.org/ 10.7441/joc.2017.01.07 Shevchuk, V., & Zyra, J. (2012). Education for Growth: The Polish Experience. In J. Pociecha (Ed.), Methods and Models for Analysing and Forecasting Economic Processes (pp. 11-31). Cracow: Cracow University of Economics.
- Su, D., & Yao, Y. (2016). Manufacturing as the key engine of economic growth for middle-income economies. ADBI Working Paper Series, 573. Teixeira, A., & Queirós, A. (2016). Economic growth, human capital and structural change: A dynamic panel data analysis. Research Policy, 45(8), 1636-1648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol. 2016.04.006 Windolf, P. (1992). Cycles of expansion in higher education 1870-1985: an international comparison. Higher Education, 23(1), 3-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141141 Yardimcioğlu, F., Gürdal, T., & ltundemir, M.E. (2014). Education and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration Approach in OECD Countries (1980-2008). Egitim ve Bilim, 39(173), 1-12. Vandenbussche, J., Aghion, P., & Meghir, C. (2006). Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(2), 97-127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887006-9002-y Zaremba, M. (2018). Problem pułapki średniego dochodu – perspektywa polska. Nierówności Społeczne a Wzrost Gospodarczy, 3(55), 243-256. https://doi.org/10.15584/nsawg.2018.3.16
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.