Public and Expert Opinions on Free Trade Agreements in South America

Abstract

Objective: Recently the Free Trade Agreements (FTA) have been drawing public attention due to political populism, alter-globalization, and tendencies to redefine patters of economic ties, together with the stereotype of mismatching social perception and so-called “expert knowledge”. Confronting public opinion and the expert knowledge may contribute to better understanding the FTA controversies, as well as to defining possible sources of social conflicts and vulnerabilities of the policy at the implementation level.

Research Design & Methods: In order to analyze the impact of FTA, the meta-analysis of the results of the literature research has been performed using a sample of 8 Spanish language papers. In our research, we included models in which natural logarithm of a measure of trade was regressed on FTA dummy variable along with other explanatory variables. The estimation strategy follows Viechtbauer (2010).

Findings: With FTA dummy variable increased trade can have its sources both in trade creation and trade diversion. Also, the endogeneity issue might result in overestimation of the effect, as countries that trade more are more likely to establish free trade agreements. Weighted least squares fixed effects models at both study and model level supports this notion. Unweighted least squares models for the Spanish language pares are the only one was a positive effect of FTA is not statistically significant.

Implications & Recommendations: Spanish language literature gives a lot of the support to the notion that free trade agreements are associated with the higher trade. However, the exact size effect can be brought to question and should be further researched.

Contribution & Value Added: Public opinion in South America seems to be quite supportive for FTA and economic integration. Meta-analysis results confirm positive FTA effects, which can be used as a convincing argument for further integration, although more research in this area could strengthen this argument.

Keywords

Free Trade Agreements (FTA), meta-analysis, public opinion

Author Biography

Krzysztof Beck

Economist, Econometrician, researcher, academic lecturer, Assistant Professor. Studied at the Cracow University of Economics and got Ph.D. in Economics at Faculty of International Business and Economics at Poznan University of Business and Economics. Recipient of an award in the Central Statistical Office of Poland’s competition for the best doctoral dissertation in Statistics. Since 2014, has been the head of Applied Economics Institute at Lazarski University in Warsaw. A lecturer on English-language double degree studies accredited by Coventry University. Research activities include participation in research projects among others financed by the National Science Center. The author of dozens of papers and couple books, mainly in the field of Macroeconomics, International Economics and Econometrics published in Polish and English, as well as statistical software. Main interests include international economics, international business cycles, international trade, currency unions, macroeconomics, econometrics, applied econometrics, mathematical economics, Bayesian statistics, and programming.

Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak

Economist, analyst, academic lecturer, Associate Professor. She studied at University of Lodz, Coimbra University, Erasmus University in Rotterdam and London School of Economics. She did her PhD in Economics at Faculty of Economics and Sociology at University of Lodz and her habilitation at Faculty of International Business and Economics at Poznan University of Business and Economics. Since 2009, she has been the head of Department of Economics at Lazarski University in Warsaw. She is a lecturer on English-language double degree studies accredited by Coventry University. Her research activities include participation in research projects among others financed by the National Science Center and the National Bank of Poland. She is the author of dozens papers and couple books, mainly in the field of Macroeconomics and International Economics published in Polish and English.

Paul Valdivieso

Business economist and consultant. Graduated from Andrés Bello Catholic University, University of Wales and Warsaw University of Technology Business School. He completed his PhD in Economics at Kozminski University in Warsaw. At present, he works in an international consulting firm, advising multinational groups with the financial planning of cross-border intra-group transactions. He worked at the Department of Economics at Lazarski University in Warsaw as a lecturer, and currently, is a member of the Institute of Socio-Economic Enquiry in Warsaw and acts as master’s thesis supervisor within the Faculty of Economics and Business at University of Chile in Santiago. He has published articles in international and financial economics as well as strategic management.