Knowledge-Intensive Services Development in the EU: Forecasts for Selected Countries and Implications for Poland

Abstract

Objective: The first purpose of the article and the underlying research is to identify trends in the development of the knowledge-intensive services (KIS) sector in selected EU countries and to create forecasts of its further growth. The second purpose is to recognize factors that may help or inhibit Poland from drawing upon the experiences of the analysed countries.

Research Design & Methods: We use time-series trend forecasting. Forecasts of the development of the KIS sector in the EU are constructed basing on available time series (2008 - 2017) using the least square method (LSM).

Findings: Knowledge-intensive services are developing with various speed in the EU countries, but an existence of a ‘glass ceiling’ in the context of a possible level of development can be noted. This ‘glass ceiling’ is situated on different levels for different groups of countries (higher for the most innovative ones, lower for others). While Poland is on the path of convergence with highly-developed EU countries in respect to the growth of knowledge-intensive services sector, several country-specific factors hinder its ability to enter the path of convergence with the innovation-leaders, thus most probably preventing it from ever reaching the highest ‘glass ceiling.’

Implications & Recommendations: The innovation policy should not only be oriented to support R&D activities but also support the development of KIS.

Contribution & Value Added: The added value of the article lies in filling the gap in the literature concerning the analysed issue. The findings may serve as suggestions for creating innovation policy.

Keywords

convergence, innovative services, knowledge-intensive services, European Union, Polish economy